[fc-discuss] Financial Cryptography Update: 2006 - The Year of the Bull

[iang@iang.org]

(((((( Financial Cryptography Update: 2006 - The Year of the Bull ))))))

                           December 28, 2005


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https://www.financialcryptography.com/mt/archives/000613.html



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2005 was when the Snail lost its identity.  What is to come in 2006? 
Prediction always being a fool's game compared to the wiser trick of
waiting until it happens and then claiming credit, here's a list of
strategic plays for the year to come.

<b>1.</b>  Government will charge into cybersecurity.  So far, the
notion of government involvement has been muted, as there have been
enough voices pointing out that while the private sector may not have a
good idea, it certainly has a less bad idea than the government. 
Cybersecurity departments have been duly and thankfully restricted.

<center><a href="http://www.kozan.sk.ca/~daniel/"><image width="594"
height="431"
src="http://www.financialcryptography.com/images/bull1_dan_kozen.jpg"><
/a></center>

I suspect in 2006, the Bull will begin to Roar through our China Shop. 
Calls seem to be escalating in all areas.  This is a reflection of many
factors:

 * the failure of private sector security to dampen the data breaches,
phishing, viruses, malware, etc...
 * countries have woken up to the fact that at the end of the day, the
USA controls enough of the core to have its way, and as a policy won't
give that up.  This annoys some and worries others, so expect the fires
of UN committees on Internet governance to be well stoked, along with a
dozen other global copycats.
 * especially, we live in the interesting times of White House
insensitivity to the law, logic and history.  Those that read America
better than I point out that the reason it's getting worse is that ...
the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans, which means that the
opposition is unlikely to care too much about opposing.
 * people -- that's users to you and me -- have shifted in their
perceptions from the Internet as a benign but fun place to a dangerous
wild wild west.
 * all sorts of academics and legal folks from outside the field are
pointing out how we solve these things elsewhere, and these methods all
require laws, agencies, police, training, budgets,  ...

For all that, calls to send in the cavalry will increase.  Oh course,
we know that we the user will be more insecure and poorer as a result
of the Bull market for cybersecurity.  What we don't know is how much
worse it will be, and I daren't predict that :)

(postal reader's note:	there are lots of images in this one, so click
and read on the site for the predictions!)

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